Rail
ITF Transport Outlook 2017
Transport Outlook, Policy Insights,
29 January 2017
- The 2016 Paris climate agreement must be translated into concrete actions for the transport sector.
- Policy will need to embrace and respond to disruptive innovation in transport.
- Reducing CO2 from urban mobility needs more than better vehicle and fuel technology.
- Targeted land-use policies can reduce the transport infrastructure needed to provide more equitable access in cities.
- Governments need to develop planning tools to adapt to uncertainties created by changing patterns of consumption, production and distribution.
Cruise Shipping and Urban Development: The Case of Dublin
Case-Specific Policy Analysis, Policy Insights,
22 January 2017
- Implement the Alexandra Basin Redevelopment Project.
- Develop a joint cruise strategy for the whole city.
- Better exploit Dublin’s asset as potential home port.
- Resolve constraints related to cruise passenger flows.
- Develop a green cruise port policy.
Quantifying the Socio-economic Benefits of Transport
Roundtable Report, Policy Insights,
20 January 2017
- Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) guidelines can be expanded to include reliability and some wider impacts.
- Further research into reliability benefits is needed to improve confidence in results.
- Wider economic impacts should be examined in cases where they are expected to be significant.
- Further research into the impacts and tools for capturing wider impacts is needed.
- Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) can play an important role in decision making, but need not dominate.
Cruise Shipping and Urban Development: The Case of Venice
Case-Specific Policy Analysis, Policy Insights,
21 December 2016
- Create certainty about the future of cruise shipping in Venice.
- Develop a tourism strategy for the city including guidance on which tourists to prioritise.
- Develop instruments to contain the number of tourists in the city of Venice.
- Develop an action plan for extracting more value from home port passengers.
- Give a more structural character to environmental policies that have a discontinuous nature.
Adapting Transport to Climate Change and Extreme Weather
Research Report, Policy Insights,
14 December 2016
- Act now to preserve the value of transport infrastructure and maintain network performance.
- Protect transport infrastructure against climate impacts through good maintenance.
- Prepare for more frequent and unexpected failure of transport infrastructure.
- Account for temporary unavailability of transport assets in in service continuity plans.
- Assess vulnerability of transport assets and networks from climate change and extreme weather.
- Focus on transport system resilience, not just on designing robust infrastructure.
- Re-evaluate thinking on redundant transport infrastructure.
- Do not rely solely on cost-benefit analysis for appraising the value of transport infrastructure.
- Develop new decision-support tools that incorporate deep uncertainty into asset appraisal.
Airport Demand Forecasting for Long-Term Planning
Roundtable Report, Policy Insights,
6 July 2016
- Use quantitative methods to analyse the key drivers of airport demand.
- Use expert guidance to help interpret the quantitative results.
- Quality-assure the analysis and counter the risks of optimism bias.
- Reflect the risks and uncertainties that arise in even the best forecasts.
- Make better use of demand forecasts in airport infrastructure planning.
Reducing Sulphur Emissions from Ships: The Impact of International Regulation
Corporate Partnership Board Report, Policy Insights,
9 May 2016
- Harmonise requirements on maritime sulphur emissions with regard to compliance options.
- Apply sanctions for non-compliance with sulphur emissions regulations for ships that are sufficiently dissuasive.
- Inverse the burden of proof for compliance by prohibiting ships to carry heavy fuel oil except as cargo.
Adapting Transport Policy to Climate Change
Research Report, Policy Insights,
30 November 2015
- Uncertainty is different from risk.
- Climate effects are subject to uncertainty.
- There are techniques to deal with risk.
- There is currently no robust method to treat Knightian uncertainty.
- Risk, uncertainty and discount rate all affect carbon value.
Cycling, Health and Safety
Research Report, Policy Insights,
19 December 2013
- Insufficient evidence supports causality for the “safety in numbers” phenomenon – policies increasing the number of cyclists should be accompanied by risk-reduction actions.
- Efforts must be made to harmonise definitions of bicycle accident terminology so as to be able to make reliable international comparisons on cyclist safety.
- National authorities should set standards for, collect or otherwise facilitate the collection of data on non-fatal cycling crashes based on police reports and, in either a systematic or periodic way, on hospital records.
- Authorities seeking to improve cyclists’ safety should adopt the Safe System approach - policy should focus on improving the inherent safety of the traffic system, not simply on securing marginal improvements for cyclists in an inherently unsafe system.
- Authorities should establish top-level plans for cycling and cycling safety and should ensure high-level coordination among relevant government agencies to ensure that cycling grows without aggravating safety performance.
- Speed management acts as “hidden infrastructure” protecting cyclists and should be included as an integral part of cycle safety strategies.
- Cyclists should not be the only target of cycling safety policies – motorists are at least as important to target.
- Where appropriate, traffic speeds should be limited to less than 30km/hr where bicycles and motorised traffic mix but care should be taken so that speed control devices do not create hazards for cyclists.
Better Regulation of Public-Private Partnerships for Transport Infrastructure
Roundtable Report, Policy Insights,
24 September 2013
- A mix of financing models spreads risks.
- A dedicated budget for PPPs, set in relation to the rate at which future liabilities will be accumulated, can provide such a limit.
- Explicit consideration of alternative financing arrangements should be employed in determining whether to proceed with PPP projects.
- It is recommended that governments require PPP projects to pass tests of affordability and to clear the hurdle rates of return generally applied to publicly financed transport projects.
- The expected cost of PPP projects should take account of cost inflation resulting from the propensity for projects to be renegotiated.
- At the individual project level, risks should be assigned to the party best able to manage them, along with rights to make related decisions.
- Assigning demand risk is not straightforward and risk sharing arrangements are therefore common.
- Continuity of resources and expertise is essential for addressing strategic behaviour and optimism bias more generally.
- Regulatory agencies are well placed to ensure transparency and accountability by publishing reports on the criteria employed to make decisions and publishing contracts.
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