A number of studies quantify CO2 impacts of mode shift to cycling. In a study of Cardiff half of car trips were considered short enough (<5km) to switch to cycling or walking. Taking into account individual travel patterns and constraints (based on the sample), 41% of these could substitute car trips saving nearly 5% of all CO2 emissions from car travel.
In Germany, 11% of trips (3% of total vehicle-kilometres travelled) are by bike, if 50% of all short trips were to switch to bike, this would increase the cycling share to 21% of all trips and reduce car vkms by 3%. This means 39 million vkm, daily, would be replaced which is equivalent to 8 000 tonnes of CO2 daily. Taking into account all the criteria classified by respondents, one third of trips could be replaced, resulting in 11% fewer vkm and therefore a reduction in CO2 emissions of up to 11%.
A study from Ireland finds that shifting from driving to cycling results in 134g CO2e saved per passenger-kilometre.
An e-bike study from Portland (USA) estimates CO2 reductions are in the order of 1 000 metric tons per day if 15% of trips are made by e-bike. This is an approximately 11% reduction considering Portland's current CO2 emissions are approximately 8 000 tons per day. Calculations are based conservatively on the 'dirtiest' electricity generation in USA.
A UK based study using the English National Travel Survey, highlights that encouraging multimodality, which is what cycling infrastructure in non-urban environments is meant to do, may not have an impact on CO2. When comparing similar distance trips, multimodal trips emit lower levels of emissions, however multimodality as a lifestyle change is not associated with lower emissions, because the greater levels of travel activity among these individuals offset the benefits derived from their multimodal choices. A longitudinal study in the UK analysing impacts of walking and cycling infrastructure finds limited evidence that the infrastructure led to CO2 emission reductions.