Road
Airport Demand Forecasting for Long-Term Planning
Roundtable Report, Policy Insights,
6 July 2016
- Use quantitative methods to analyse the key drivers of airport demand.
- Use expert guidance to help interpret the quantitative results.
- Quality-assure the analysis and counter the risks of optimism bias.
- Reflect the risks and uncertainties that arise in even the best forecasts.
- Make better use of demand forecasts in airport infrastructure planning.
Capacity to Grow: Transport Infrastructure Needs for Future Trade Growth
Corporate Partnership Board Report, Policy Insights,
8 May 2016
- Develop planning tools to adapt to uncertainties: Good port planning means planning for uncertainties.
- Increase port capacity by optimising existing terminals.
- Take a holistic planning approach to improving port capacity needs as part of the entire supply chain.
- Use funding as a balancing tool in port capacity development.
Establishing Mexico’s Regulatory Agency for Rail Transport
Case-Specific Policy Analysis, Policy Insights,
29 February 2016
- Any reform of the rail concessioning system must preserve the current high level of performance.
- Accept price discrimination to ensure efficiency, with the regulatory agency to adjudicate what prices are reasonable.
- Focus regulation on cases where effective competition does not already exist.
- Collect adequate financial and operating data on the rail companies as the basis for effective regulatory decisions.
- Consider cutting the cost of regulation by including an arbitration mechanism in any further regulatory reform.
- Consider inter-switching rules in any further regulatory reform.
- Interchange traffic rights should not be expected to be used for shippers to specify routes.
- Resource the new regulator with sufficient expertise to convince the courts that its decisions are sound.
Better Regulation of Public-Private Partnerships for Transport Infrastructure
Roundtable Report, Policy Insights,
24 September 2013
- A mix of financing models spreads risks.
- A dedicated budget for PPPs, set in relation to the rate at which future liabilities will be accumulated, can provide such a limit.
- Explicit consideration of alternative financing arrangements should be employed in determining whether to proceed with PPP projects.
- It is recommended that governments require PPP projects to pass tests of affordability and to clear the hurdle rates of return generally applied to publicly financed transport projects.
- The expected cost of PPP projects should take account of cost inflation resulting from the propensity for projects to be renegotiated.
- At the individual project level, risks should be assigned to the party best able to manage them, along with rights to make related decisions.
- Assigning demand risk is not straightforward and risk sharing arrangements are therefore common.
- Continuity of resources and expertise is essential for addressing strategic behaviour and optimism bias more generally.
- Regulatory agencies are well placed to ensure transparency and accountability by publishing reports on the criteria employed to make decisions and publishing contracts.