Developing Future Transport Scenarios: Insights and Best Practices from National Authorities
Traditional transport forecasting models are earmarked by an over-reliance on previous trends, hindering the ability to capture the major changes underway in global transport systems. This project explores alternative methods for transport planning based on “visioning” a preferred future and the actions needed to reach it.
Taking the specific case of ITF member Norway, the project explores how “backcasting” - a technique already used in other sectors to set strategic goals and understand the pathways needed to achieve them – can be applied to transport sector specificities.
This unique study represents a significant shift in transport planning methodology, moving from trend-based forecasting to forward-looking, goal-driven analysis. Seeking policy tools to operationalise a vision for future transport systems marks a new step in achieving sustainability goals.
Outputs include recommendations that are universally applicable as well as those specific to the Norwegian context.